For Mother Russia's Skies!
1) Which is more useful for okizeme (anti-wakeup game)? Keep in mind that I primarily will use body splash crossup tricks by default, and then once in a while throw in Atomic Suplex/Spinning Piledriver.
2) How useful is Siberian Blizzard when I'm down? This is the best time for me to throw it out consistently.
3) How useful is either one in the middle of the overall fight?
As you'll see, I often tended toward Siberian Blizzard in my answers, largely because Ultimate Atomic Buster is just a more powerful version of Spinning Piledriver. It's usually better to have a different threat/answer than it is to have a more powerful version of something you already have.
*: Characters with a * by their names can be hit by Siberian Blizzard while crumpling. It requires precise timing. After hitting with a focus attack, you have to let the recovery go through (do not dash out). Buffer the 720 motion as you are doing this, taking special care to go in the direction that will have you jumping forward. When crumpling, characters are considered to be aerial when they are on their knees and their heads have moved backward. That's the time when Siberian Blizzard should come out. It's precise timing, works on 10 out of 35 characters, and most of those characters will probably not be easily crumpled. Still, it's something to consider.
Ryu: 2. I really need the option of using Siberian Blizzard to give me a big edge. It says Ryu should basically never try to cross me up (allowing me better position control). It says that he can't necessarily just catch me in the air with a Shoryuken - Metsu Hadoken combo. Once in a while, if I can really predict he'll try a reversal Shoryuken in anticipation of a grab, it can seriously punish (primarily useful when I'm a chip away from death).
Ken: 2. Not surprisingly, the reasoning here is pretty similar, but with more emphasis on the crossups. Ken can give me a lot of trouble on the ground, but I get more benefit out of the additional air control than the ground control Ultimate Atomic Buster can.
*Honda: 2. Honda spends a surprising amount of time in the air for this matchup, and I need to be able to meet him there. This may change depending on the player's style, though.
Ibuki: 2. In this matchup, I don't see myself landing either one, really. I just see myself having more chances to get Siberian Blizzard than Ultimate Atomic Buster.
Makoto: 1? This entirely depends on the player. By default, you're probably more likely to land Ultimate Atomic Buster when she's down if the body splash shenanigans are done right. However, this can punish okizeme axe kicks from heavily technical players and punish Abare Tosanami (ultra 2).
Dudley: 1. Dudley's not going to give me an opportunity for Siberian Blizzard. He has little motivation to try those risky situations. He does give me opportunities all over for Ultimate Atomic Buster, especially if he thinks about parrying my crossups.
Seth: 2?. I'm pretty screwed in this matchup anyway, but there's just about no situation where I will land Ultimate Atomic Buster. However, people who play Seth in a more aggressive style will attempt to dance on my head. The reason for the question mark is that it's not unrealistic for me to stun Seth, the only situation where I can land Ultimate Atomic Buster (Siberian Blizzard won't work).
*Gouken: 2. Gouken just loves to eat any ultra from Zangief. Ultimate Atomic Buster can land when they attempt to parry a crossup, which would indeed be heavily damaging. However, just like Akuma, Siberian Blizzard answers the demon flip, and an answer works better than a more powerful version of an existing threat. He can also get Siberian Blizzard in a combo if I do it right.
Akuma: 2. No good Akuma player will ever get hit with Ultimate Atomic Buster. It will not happen. Even the best setup is way too obvious for Akuma to get hit. Siberian Blizzard offers a valuable defense against Demon Flip, and Akuma can't afford to get hit with that.
Gen: 2. This can absolutely help against his wall-jump shenanigans, even though Gen can just as well fake you out. It's unrealistic to expect Ultimate Atomic Buster to work, though. This is one where ultras just don't really fit at all, and you take the one that's more realistic.
Dan: 2. For all the same reasons as Ryu, Siberian Blizzard prevails.
Sakura: 2. Sakura doesn't have much trouble avoiding grabs. However, most of her special moves make her aerial (Shououken only does it in EX). There are just way too many situations for Siberian Blizzard to be relevant for me to reject it.
Juri: 2? This one could honestly go either way. Juri can control a lot of territory very well, and neither ultra works well except for good prediction. What puts me over the edge though, is the same logic I have with
Chun-Li: 2. Siberian Blizzard was basically made for this. EX Spinning Bird Kick wrecks my day hardcore (not that it's unanswerable), and this can catch it easily. I've gotten a fair amount of backdashes with it, too.
Dhalsim: ? This one's rather questionable, and I need to play against a good Dhalsim enough times to make an informed statement. This is one of those matchups where I feel Siberian Blizzard may have little use. However, I can see him trying those tricky air-teleport combos, and probably other jump instances I can't see yet. Respond to Yogi Shangri-La?
Abel: 1. Abel shouldn't be jumping at all in this matchup, especially once he has his second ultra ready. Ultimate Atomic Buster isn't much more likely to work, but at least it has more openings than Siberian Blizzard. All Siberian Blizzard could possibly punish is a drop kick when you're getting up.
C. Viper: 2. It's possible you could get a crumple going, but Viper does spend a lot of time in the air. It seems more likely that you could get this happening, especially in baiting a Thunder Knuckle response.
*Dictator: 2. The logic here is quite similar to Akuma. He's got every means to make sure you never hit Ultimate Atomic Buster without him screwing up. You have to get a crumple for it to work out. However, most of his special moves make him aerial, including his Psycho Crusher (strangely, Double Knee Press is excluded). This is exactly what you need to punish him.
*Sagat: 2. This match is rough as hell. You need every option you can get. You don't need a stronger version of another option you have. This will make him consider more heavily as to whether he does his Tiger Uppercut. Unfortunately, it's not something you can use jumping in, because he has better ground options. Consider this more if they've just used Angry Scar, because they'll be more likely to want the payoff of the improved Tiger Uppercut.
Cammy: 2. Chances are you won't land either ultra in this matchup (without a crumple for Ultimate Atomic Buster). Instead, have an option ready to punish the many aerial moves she has.
Dee Jay: 2. Just like Chun-Li likes to spam aerial kicks on reversal, I've noticed Dee Jay players opting for the same thing for the same reason. Siberian Blizzard punishes this well.
Cody: 1. The only reason I can see Cody ever jumping is when he's down. He jumps up to stop a grab, then does a fairly damaging combo on me. That's it, and it's not enough to warrant me picking Siberian Blizzard. Instead, I can punish that trick more effectively by being a good Zangief player. Make him not want to jump. At some point, you can toss this out to make them remember why they jumped.
Guy: 2. This guy sure likes to fly around a lot. Sounds like you should take the fight to the air. He has too many good ways to avoid being grabbed on the ground.
*Hakan: 1. Inversely, Hakan won't be doing much jumping at all. The fight needs to be on the ground here.
Guile: 2. Another character that warrants Siberian Blizzard, it just messes with him heavily. Properly done, it can beat out any Flash Kick, and just might be the tool I need to get a Guile that anticipated air-grabbing me. Gotta work on that one.
*Blanka: 2? Still in question, but I've kinda got a good feeling about this. Unlike Guile, this would help me merely capitalize on the position I already have. With my usual cross-up shenanigans, Blanka can either go electric (in which case he gets grabbed, even on reversal) or do something aerial. With enough practice, I can use it to counter a fair amount of things Blanka does, but it hardly improves the match. Blanka's still got a big advantage.
*Zangief: 2. Why am I the only one using Siberian Blizzard in a mirror match? It gets headbutt and body splash, two things that are great to use here. It'll even hit in a crumple (which I have recorded). Ultimate Atomic Buster is good too, but Siberian Blizzard gives you tremendously powerful options.
*Rufus: 2. Siberian Blizzard > Falcon Kick. Siberian Blizzard > Messiah Kick. That's all I need to know.
El Fuerte: 2. Although Ultimate Atomic Buster isn't entirely out of the question, Siberian Blizzard gives him motivation not to run and jump at you when you're getting up. Still a tough match, but this ultra makes it more likely you can actually play the game.
*Claw: 1? This isn't as clear a choice as you think. Yes, he flies through the air, but he also has incredible control over that flight. That makes Siberian Blizzard largely unreliable (not that it hasn't worked for me). However, Ultimate Atomic Buster makes a powerful punishment tool against Splendid Claw. Crumple is mostly irrelevant, since either ultra can hit him on crumple.
Boxer: 1. There aren't many instances when you can use Siberian Blizzard. There aren't many instances when you can use Ultimate Atomic Buster either, but they're still better than the former. The ability to punish a poorly done Violent Buffalo is definitely good times, too.
*T. Hawk: 2. T. Hawk wants to stay on the ground for this match, so why not take the fight to him with Ultimate Atomic Buster? This fight is going to be won with hits, not grabs. Going for an empty jump-in ultra exposes you to way more danger, even on crossup, than jumping at any range with Siberian Blizzard ready.
Adon: 2. Again, this is harder than you'd think. Adon can control this matchup really well and is not to be taken lightly. However, this is the purest example of why Siberian Blizzard is preferred. It can be used to punish his okizeme pressure. It can also bait otherwise valuable anti-air responses.
Rose: 1. Rose will never crossup. Rose will never jump in with an attack. Siberian Blizzard will never pay off for you.